Odds & implied probability
What probability does an American price imply before accounting for the bookmaker’s margin?
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THE THINKING BEHIND THE PICK
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Dated snapshots, up to twice a day. Prices may have changed. Market estimates are assumptions, not predictions or guaranteed returns.
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Understand the numbers.
Transparent calculations. Your inputs, your assumptions.
Remove the margin
Normalize both sides of the same two-outcome market. This is a market estimate, not the true probability.
Expected value
Explore how a probability assumption changes modeled return. An incorrect assumption changes the result.
OPEN METHODOLOGYSee the reasoning.
See the reasoning.
Keep the perspective.
Good research starts with knowing what a number can—and cannot—tell you.
01 Compare like-for-like markets
We compare upcoming two-outcome moneyline markets for NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, college football and supported ATP/WTA tennis tournaments, where available. At collection, quotes must be complete and updated within the prior hour. Started games are removed from the current board. Market rules and tie/void treatment can differ; our source does not verify identical settlement rules.
02 Build a market-based estimate
For each bookmaker, implied probabilities are 1 ÷ decimal odds, then normalized to sum to 100%. We average those normalized probabilities across at least three other books, excluding the book showing the best price. Shared feeds and correlated pricing can affect this reference. Plays are published only with at least three other reference books; incomplete plays stay hidden until qualifying data arrives.
03 Calculate, without promising
Estimated EV = (market probability × best decimal price − 1) × 100%. Positive EV means a positive modeled return only if the probability assumption is accurate. These estimates are unvalidated and are not an independent prediction model. Snapshot prices are not executable quotes. Past or hypothetical returns do not establish future results.
04 Keep data use transparent
Source: The Odds API. Snapshots are eligible to refresh in each 12-hour UTC window; a twice-daily job warms the cache. Tennis coverage includes up to two active supported tournaments per snapshot, rotating when needed. Missing coverage, exhausted quota, invalid credentials or outages can prevent updates. Individual quote times are shown under Compare. Book names identify data sources and do not imply affiliation.
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